Buy or Rent? 買房還是租房﹖

September 7th, 2009

With housing prices down significantly and interest rates low, it may be an affordable time to buy that first home.

如今很多地方的房價都有了大幅下跌﹐銀行的利率又很低﹐似乎正是購置人生第一套房產的好時機。

In some instances, the price of owning can be comparable to renting in the long run. But a lot of uncertainty still remains about the housing market and the economy — making the decision to buy more complicated.

有些情況下﹐買房跟長期租房的花費相差無幾。不過樓市和經濟依然有很多的不確定因素─所以要做出決定還是挺複雜的事情。

Here are some questions to consider when deciding if buying or renting is the right choice:

在決定買房還是租房最適合你之前﹐或許可以先考慮以下這些問題﹕

How long do you plan to stay in your home? “There are high transaction costs associated with buying and selling” a house, says Dean Baker, co-director at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, so home buyers should plan to stay put for at least four to five years.

你打算在新買的房子裡住多久﹖經濟與政策研究中心(Center for Economic and Policy Research)聯席主任迪安‧貝克(Dean Baker)說﹐“買賣房產交易費用很高﹐”因此如果打算購房的話﹐至少要打算住個四五年才划算。

The reasoning? The costs for buying and then selling a home — which can include a real-estate agent’s fee, a transfer fee, closing costs, and inspector and surveyor fees — could add up to about 10% of the sale price, or roughly 1½ years worth of rent. “If you average that over 10 years, it is not that big a deal,” says Mr. Baker. “But if you average it over, say two years, you’re paying an awful lot of money to own a house for a short period of time.”

原因何在呢﹖買了房子再賣掉所需的費用──包括房產中介費﹑過戶費﹑買賣手續費﹑驗房師和估價師的費用──雜七雜八加在一起大約是房價的10%﹐或者大致相當於一年半的房租。貝克說﹐“如果你把這個費用分攤到10年﹐那就不算什麼大數目﹐不過如果要分攤到比如兩年﹐那就意味著﹐你要為短時間擁有一個房子付出很大的價錢。”

Can you handle the monthly expense? While a monthly mortgage payment may be comparable in some cases to a monthly rent, there are other expenses to consider.

每月所需費用你可以承擔嗎﹖雖然有些情況下﹐月供跟你每月租房的費用差不多﹐不過買了房子之後﹐除了月供之外﹐還會產生其他一些費用。

What’s the price-to-rent ratio? To determine whether it makes more financial sense to buy or rent in your area, compare home sales prices with the cost of renting a similar place.

房屋租售比如何﹖要想判斷你所在地區是買房划算還是租房划算﹐可以將房價與同類房屋的租價做一個比對。

Divide the price of the home by the total cost of rent for one year. If the result is more than 20, “I’d be very concerned that the price [of the home] might fall more,” says Mr. Baker, and you should consider waiting to buy. If it’s 15 or below, he says, “you’re probably reasonably safe” with prices holding steady or growing.

貝克認為﹐如果將房價除以一年的租價得出的結果大於20﹐“我就會擔心房價極有可能還會再跌﹐”你就應該考慮再觀望些時候了。他說﹐如果結果小於等於15﹐“買入應該還是相當安全的﹐”因為房價會保持穩定﹐甚至還會上升。

“If your career stability is strong, you are comfortable doing what you’re doing…and you are committed in some form to your lifestyle,” Mr. Morris says, buying a home becomes a more attractive option.

莫里斯說﹐“如果你的工作非常穩定﹐你對現狀非常滿意…個人生活方面也相對穩定﹐”那麼買房就是更有吸引力的選擇。

Extracted from the Wall Street Journal 華爾街日報

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Investor Psychology 投資者心態

April 18th, 2009

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次級房貸危機的寓言故事

March 9th, 2009

有一天,一位其貌不揚的男士,帶著一位十分豔麗的OL,來到Causeway Bay一家LV店。

他為OL選了一價值6萬5元的LV handbag。

付款時,男士掏出支票本,十分瀟灑地簽了一張支票。店員有些為難,因為這對夫婦是第一次來店購物。

男士看穿了店員的心思,十分冷靜地對店員說: “我感覺到,您擔心這是一張是空頭支票,對嗎?今天是週六,銀行關門。我建議您把支票和handbag都留下。等到星期一支票兌現之後,再請你們把 handbag 送到這位小姐的府上。您看這樣行不行?”

店員放了下心來,欣然地接受了這個建議,並且大方的承諾,遞送handbag的費用由該店承擔,他本人將會親自把這件事情給辦妥。

星期一,店員拿著支票去銀行入賬,支票果真是張空頭支票!憤怒的店員打電話給那位元顧客,客戶對他說: “這沒有什麼要緊啊!你和我都沒有損失。上星期六的晚上我已經同那個女孩上床了!哦,多謝您的合作。”

這個故事揭示了次貸危機的本質。

人們在對未來收益充滿良好預期的時候, 對於可能加大風險缺乏防範意識。

美女認為週一六萬多LV就到家了,自然也就放鬆了警惕, 認為ONS的投資是值得的,對於投入產出的預期是建立在一個具有巨大不確定風險的情況下的。而對未來收益預期的包裝則是這些投資機構最擅長的事情。

股民大多跟這個美女一樣,所以虧錢基本上是活該,沒有這些人,股市賺誰的錢呢?

而媒體和分析家們,往往在其中扮演了LV店員的配合角色。

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Committed Cohabiters 沒有婚書的婚姻

February 15th, 2009

EnglishWith all the stimulus ready to go into more broadband, bigger tax cuts and infrastructure, some of America’s most expensive societal investments are also on the decline and in need of a bailout — getting married.

Marriage in America is on the rocks. People skirt the issue, talking about how career women delay marriage until it’s too late, or about how men marry younger the second time around. But the truth is, except for the highest-income Americans among us, fewer and fewer of us are getting married at all.

Married couples with children now make up fewer than one in four U.S. households. That’s half the rate of 1960. Married households of any type have been in the minority since 2005.

It’s not that people are suddenly more promiscuous, or more celibate. Americans are pairing off and staying together just as much as ever, but now it’s without the rings, gowns and expensive photographers. They are America’s committed cohabiters, and theirs is the fastest-growing kind of U.S. household. According to the Census, there are 5.2 million such cohabiting couples, and they are raising 2.2 million children.

Committed cohabiters are more downscale than married parents — they have lower incomes, lower education levels and lower rates of home ownership. There is now a great and growing marital divide between the rich who can afford it and the downscale, who are living more and more without it.

But today it’s not just the young who are living in what just a generation ago was called living in sin — their parents have adapted and are living that way too. The fastest growth in cohabitation is among the over-50 set. Oftentimes, widows, widowers and divorced Americans over 50 — who now total 25 million people — don’t want to complicate inheritances (or burial plans) with a second marriage, but they are committing to each other with devotion just as tender as young people experience, and they are counting very much on the other’s being there at the end.

Society values marriage and monogamy, though, so why isn’t it doing anything about it? There are two options: make marriage economically and socially more attractive, or go with the flow and expand the privileges and obligations of “common law” couples. Right now we are letting the chips fall where they may — a tactic which is currently causing marriage to continue to wither away as an institution. The word “partner” is increasingly replacing the word “spouse.”

If we wanted to increase the number of marriages, we have a number of ideas readily at hand. Tax breaks, instead of tax penalties. Yes-fault divorce. A push for religious leaders to stop spending so much time decrying some marriages (e.g., gay ones, interracial ones), and instead focus on encouraging marriage in the first place. Maybe a national “Spouse Day,” to go along with Mother’s Day and Father’s Day.

How about revisiting those traditional anniversary gifts? Forget the paper in year one and the wood in year five — let’s upgrade the scale. Call 10 years the “silver” anniversary, to celebrate more lavishly those who make it there. Make 25 the “golden” one. And for those who make it to 50 years, hell, give them the Hope Diamond.

Alternatively, we could expand the rights and obligations of committed cohabiters. Every legal arrangement in society — from child custody to survivors’ benefits to next-of-kin decision-making — is affected by this new living arrangement. And so is every institution that gears its benefits around families. Can an unmarried significant other, even a longstanding one, skip the waiting list at the country club because his “friend” already belongs? Can a widowed life partner keep her beloved’s rent-controlled apartment? Can you still get the family rate at Disneyland if the adults in your group are unrelated by either blood or marriage?

Marketers, too, have yet to recognize committed cohabiters as a class and start offering products that acknowledge their unique status. Towels with his and her initials, but separately designed. Address labels that can actually handle two full names. How about a legal and will kit that allows cohabiters to choose just how separate-and-apart they want to be in death, as in life? And if Hallmark is missing out on all those wedding anniversary cards, maybe it’s time to celebrate when we moved in together.

In a sense, relationships at home are increasingly paralleling relationships at work with employers. Whereas 50 years ago, people expected to have one or two jobs for life, now some estimates say they expect six or seven. If marriage was meant to be “’til death do us part,” cohabitation is a little more like “’til life drives us apart.”

At home as at work, Americans are signing on, but without all the trappings that might make progression to the next stage too difficult. And social planners better catch up. They have fallen behind on what could be the most basic of trends — how to accommodate people navigating the middle ground between uncommitted hook-ups, and the “institution” of marriage. And with the financial crisis hitting the downscale the hardest, it may lead to even more cohabitation without marriage, accelerating this microtrend into something bigger.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

中文在寬帶互聯網投資、大規模減稅、基礎設施建設等各式經濟刺激措施呼之欲出的同時﹐美國一些最昂貴的社會投資卻在降溫﹐並且急需得到救助﹐那就是﹕結婚。

美國的婚姻狀況並不理想。人們總是回避這個問題﹐說什麼職業女性不到年齡真的大了就一直耗著不結婚﹐要麼就是談論男人如何在再婚時娶到年輕太太。不過﹐實際情況是﹐除了那些最有錢的人﹐越來越多的美國人壓根儿就不結婚。

目前﹐美國家庭中有子女的已婚家庭比例尚不足四分之一﹐這一比率只是1960年時的一半。從2005年開始﹐已婚家庭(不論其類型)已經成為美國社會中的少數群体。

這並不是說美國人突然變得喜歡沾花惹草、或一下子轉而崇尚獨身主義了。美國人依然出雙入對﹐願意與戀人長相廝守﹐只是現在沒有了戒指、婚紗和重金聘來的攝影師。他們選擇以負責任的態度同居﹐而且這已成為了美國增長最快的家庭模式。人口普查局(Census)的數據顯示﹐美國目前有520萬對非婚同居伴侶﹐共生育了220萬名子女。

與已婚夫婦相比﹐非婚同居伴侶的社會階層較低﹐他們收入少、教育水平低、住房擁有率也低。就婚姻問題而言﹐富人和低收入群體之間儼然已形成了一道越來越寬的鴻溝﹕前者能夠負擔得起婚姻﹐後者中越來越多的人則過著沒有一紙婚書的婚姻生活。

不過如今﹐不僅是年輕人過著被上一代稱做傷風敗俗的非婚同居生活﹐就連他們的父母也開始習慣並選擇這樣的生活方式。50歲以上的人口是增長最快的非婚同居人群。美國現有2,500萬50歲以上的喪偶、離婚人士﹐他們不願因為再婚而讓遺產(或喪葬)情況複雜化﹐但他們也像年輕人一樣溫柔地愛著自己的戀人﹐並且希望戀人能陪伴自己走完人生的旅程。

不過社會提倡的是婚姻和一夫一妻制﹐那麼為什麼採取行動來改變現狀呢﹖現在有兩個選擇﹕讓婚姻在經濟和社會層面上變得更有吸引力﹔或者遵從大眾意見﹐擴充事實婚姻伴侶的權利和義務。現在的情況是我們對一切放任自流﹐其結果便是讓婚姻作為一種制度繼續破滅。”配偶”這個詞正在越來越多地被”伴侶”代替。

如果要鼓勵人們結婚﹐這裡有一些現成的辦法﹕進行減稅而不是稅務罰款﹔對過錯離婚不去窮追猛打﹔敦促宗教人士不要再花那麼多的時間來抨擊某些婚姻(如同性婚姻、異族通婚等)﹐而應該把首要精力放在鼓勵人們結婚上﹔或許在”母親節”和”父親節”之外再設立一個”配偶節”。

再在結婚週年禮物上動動心思怎樣﹖先不考慮1週年”紙婚”和5週年”木婚”﹐讓我們看得遠一些。我們可以把結婚10週年升級為”銀婚”﹐婚姻的路上走這麼久不容易﹐值得人們多花些錢來慶祝﹔25週年應該被稱做”金婚”﹔至於50週年嘛﹐天哪﹐那可以被稱為”希望鑽石婚”了﹗

我們面臨的另一種選擇是去豐富非婚同居人群的權利和義務。這種新的生活方式影響著從子女監護、到遺產贈與、再到近親繼承等各種社會法律﹐以及每一項與家庭福利相關的規章制度。是不是可以讓某位鄉村俱樂部會員的”未婚重要友人”無須等候直接入會﹖讓某位逝者的人生伴侶能夠繼續保留她愛人租住的公寓﹖讓同游隊伍不因其中某些成年人沒有血緣或婚姻關係而享受不了迪斯尼家庭套票﹖

同樣﹐商人們也應該認識到社會上存在著非婚同居者這樣一個群體﹐併提供符合他們特殊情況的產品﹕有”他”或”她”名字首字母的毛巾﹐不過要分別設計﹔能夠寫下兩人全名的地址簽﹔還有讓非婚同居夫婦選擇分頭或一起安排身後事的遺囑文件包。如果所有結婚週年紀念卡上都少了”結婚”二字﹐那麼讓我們開始為同居生活慶賀吧﹗

在某種意義上﹐家庭中的夫妻關係與工作中雇員與老板的關係越來越像。50年前﹐人們預計一生中不會換工作或者只會換上一次工作﹐而如今一些人估計他們要換上五六次工作。如果婚姻意味著”直到死亡將彼此分離”﹐那麼同居就有那麼點”直到生活將彼此分離”的意思。

家庭生活就如工作一樣﹐人們在合同上簽名﹐但也不想讓自己背上太過沉重的負擔﹐以致於難以展開一段新的旅程。所以社會規劃者們最好跟上時代潮流﹐他們已經落後於這一可能是最基本的趨勢──如何接納在非正式婚姻和婚姻制度之間生存的中間人群。金融危機給底層人群帶來了最沉重的打擊﹐這可能導致更多非婚同居現象的出現﹐並最終把這個少數群體變成多數群體。

資料來源:華爾街日報

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工作難找 履歷大頭照決勝負

January 30th, 2009

繁體中文景氣大蕭條,全球引發嚴重失業潮,求職市場遇上了大寒冬,想要獲得企業的青睞,履歷表變得各外格外重要,尤其是履歷表上的大頭照,日本有一位攝影師,會針對每位學生求職的職業別,拍出不同感覺的大頭照,非常受到學生歡迎。

求職市場,進入冷颼颼的寒冬,這對即將步出校門的學生來說,可是嚴峻的考驗,要如何在眾多的求職者中,脫穎而出給企業人事主管留下深刻印象,履歷表上的大頭照,可說是最重要的關鍵。

在日本札幌市經營照相館的橋場一宏,在不景氣中依舊生意興隆,而且上門拍照的幾乎都是為求職苦惱的大學生,橋場之所有擁有超高人氣,最主要是他會針對每位學生希望的求職類別,給予拍照時的建議。

在橋場的引導下,學生的表情越來越自然,嘴角上揚的大頭照,用來應徵國內的航空公司,而另一張露齒微笑的照片,則是應徵外國航空公司之用,想要進入出版業的三上杏那,在拍了30張照片之後,最後決定以一張展現知性笑容的大頭照,投入激烈的求職戰場。

每張大頭照展現了求職者的個性,以及想要獲得率取的決心。

简体中文景气大萧条,全球引发严重失业潮,求职市场遇上了大寒冬,想要获得企业的青睐,履历表变得各外格外重要,尤其是履历表上的大头照,日本有一位摄影师,会针对每位学生求职的职业别,拍出不同感觉的大头照,非常受到学生欢迎。

求职市场,进入冷飕飕的寒冬,这对即将步出校门的学生来说,可是严峻的考验,要如何在众多的求职者中,脱颖而出给企业人事主管留下深刻印象,履历表上的大头照,可说是最重要的关键。

在日本札幌市经营照相馆的桥场一宏,在不景气中依旧生意兴隆,而且上门拍照的几乎都是为求职苦恼的大学生,桥场之所有拥有超高人气,最主要是他会针对每位学生希望的求职类别,给予拍照时的建议。

在桥场的引导下,学生的表情越来越自然,嘴角上扬的大头照,用来应征国内的航空公司,而另一张露齿微笑的照片,则是应征外国航空公司之用,想要进入出版业的三上杏那,在拍了30张照片之后,最后决定以一张展现知性笑容的大头照,投入激烈的求职战场。

每张大头照展现了求职者的个性,以及想要获得率取的决心。

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