Investor Psychology 投資者心態
April 18th, 2009
Categories: Investing / Economy, 投資 / 經濟 | Tags: Economy, Financial Crisis, Investing, Investor Psychology, 投資, 投資者心態, 華爾街, 金融風暴 | No Comments
Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, today is a gift, that’s why we call it the “present.”
April 18th, 2009
Categories: Investing / Economy, 投資 / 經濟 | Tags: Economy, Financial Crisis, Investing, Investor Psychology, 投資, 投資者心態, 華爾街, 金融風暴 | No Comments
March 9th, 2009
有一天,一位其貌不揚的男士,帶
著一位十分豔麗的OL,來到Causeway Bay一家LV店。
他為OL選了一價值6萬5元的LV handbag。
付款時,男士掏出支票本,十分瀟灑地簽了一張支票。店員有些為難,因為這對夫婦是第一次來店購物。
男士看穿了店員的心思,十分冷靜地對店員說: “我感覺到,您擔心這是一張是空頭支票,對嗎?今天是週六,銀行關門。我建議您把支票和handbag都留下。等到星期一支票兌現之後,再請你們把 handbag 送到這位小姐的府上。您看這樣行不行?”
店員放了下心來,欣然地接受了這個建議,並且大方的承諾,遞送handbag的費用由該店承擔,他本人將會親自把這件事情給辦妥。
星期一,店員拿著支票去銀行入賬,支票果真是張空頭支票!憤怒的店員打電話給那位元顧客,客戶對他說: “這沒有什麼要緊啊!你和我都沒有損失。上星期六的晚上我已經同那個女孩上床了!哦,多謝您的合作。”
這個故事揭示了次貸危機的本質。
人們在對未來收益充滿良好預期的時候, 對於可能加大風險缺乏防範意識。
美女認為週一六萬多LV就到家了,自然也就放鬆了警惕, 認為ONS的投資是值得的,對於投入產出的預期是建立在一個具有巨大不確定風險的情況下的。而對未來收益預期的包裝則是這些投資機構最擅長的事情。
股民大多跟這個美女一樣,所以虧錢基本上是活該,沒有這些人,股市賺誰的錢呢?
而媒體和分析家們,往往在其中扮演了LV店員的配合角色。
Categories: 娛樂, 投資 / 經濟 | Tags: 投資, 次級房貸, 金融風暴 | No Comments
February 15th, 2009
Marriage in America is on the rocks. People skirt the issue, talking about how career women delay marriage until it’s too late, or about how men marry younger the second time around. But the truth is, except for the highest-income Americans among us, fewer and fewer of us are getting married at all.
Married couples with children now make up fewer than one in four U.S. households. That’s half the rate of 1960. Married households of any type have been in the minority since 2005.
It’s not that people are suddenly more promiscuous, or more celibate. Americans are pairing off and staying together just as much as ever, but now it’s without the rings, gowns and expensive photographers. They are America’s committed cohabiters, and theirs is the fastest-growing kind of U.S. household. According to the Census, there are 5.2 million such cohabiting couples, and they are raising 2.2 million children.
Committed cohabiters are more downscale than married parents — they have lower incomes, lower education levels and lower rates of home ownership. There is now a great and growing marital divide between the rich who can afford it and the downscale, who are living more and more without it.
But today it’s not just the young who are living in what just a generation ago was called living in sin — their parents have adapted and are living that way too. The fastest growth in cohabitation is among the over-50 set. Oftentimes, widows, widowers and divorced Americans over 50 — who now total 25 million people — don’t want to complicate inheritances (or burial plans) with a second marriage, but they are committing to each other with devotion just as tender as young people experience, and they are counting very much on the other’s being there at the end.
Society values marriage and monogamy, though, so why isn’t it doing anything about it? There are two options: make marriage economically and socially more attractive, or go with the flow and expand the privileges and obligations of “common law” couples. Right now we are letting the chips fall where they may — a tactic which is currently causing marriage to continue to wither away as an institution. The word “partner” is increasingly replacing the word “spouse.”
If we wanted to increase the number of marriages, we have a number of ideas readily at hand. Tax breaks, instead of tax penalties. Yes-fault divorce. A push for religious leaders to stop spending so much time decrying some marriages (e.g., gay ones, interracial ones), and instead focus on encouraging marriage in the first place. Maybe a national “Spouse Day,” to go along with Mother’s Day and Father’s Day.
How about revisiting those traditional anniversary gifts? Forget the paper in year one and the wood in year five — let’s upgrade the scale. Call 10 years the “silver” anniversary, to celebrate more lavishly those who make it there. Make 25 the “golden” one. And for those who make it to 50 years, hell, give them the Hope Diamond.
Alternatively, we could expand the rights and obligations of committed cohabiters. Every legal arrangement in society — from child custody to survivors’ benefits to next-of-kin decision-making — is affected by this new living arrangement. And so is every institution that gears its benefits around families. Can an unmarried significant other, even a longstanding one, skip the waiting list at the country club because his “friend” already belongs? Can a widowed life partner keep her beloved’s rent-controlled apartment? Can you still get the family rate at Disneyland if the adults in your group are unrelated by either blood or marriage?
Marketers, too, have yet to recognize committed cohabiters as a class and start offering products that acknowledge their unique status. Towels with his and her initials, but separately designed. Address labels that can actually handle two full names. How about a legal and will kit that allows cohabiters to choose just how separate-and-apart they want to be in death, as in life? And if Hallmark is missing out on all those wedding anniversary cards, maybe it’s time to celebrate when we moved in together.
In a sense, relationships at home are increasingly paralleling relationships at work with employers. Whereas 50 years ago, people expected to have one or two jobs for life, now some estimates say they expect six or seven. If marriage was meant to be “’til death do us part,” cohabitation is a little more like “’til life drives us apart.”
At home as at work, Americans are signing on, but without all the trappings that might make progression to the next stage too difficult. And social planners better catch up. They have fallen behind on what could be the most basic of trends — how to accommodate people navigating the middle ground between uncommitted hook-ups, and the “institution” of marriage. And with the financial crisis hitting the downscale the hardest, it may lead to even more cohabitation without marriage, accelerating this microtrend into something bigger.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
美國的婚姻狀況並不理想。人們總是回避這個問題﹐說什麼職業女性不到年齡真的大了就一直耗著不結婚﹐要麼就是談論男人如何在再婚時娶到年輕太太。不過﹐實際情況是﹐除了那些最有錢的人﹐越來越多的美國人壓根儿就不結婚。
目前﹐美國家庭中有子女的已婚家庭比例尚不足四分之一﹐這一比率只是1960年時的一半。從2005年開始﹐已婚家庭(不論其類型)已經成為美國社會中的少數群体。
這並不是說美國人突然變得喜歡沾花惹草、或一下子轉而崇尚獨身主義了。美國人依然出雙入對﹐願意與戀人長相廝守﹐只是現在沒有了戒指、婚紗和重金聘來的攝影師。他們選擇以負責任的態度同居﹐而且這已成為了美國增長最快的家庭模式。人口普查局(Census)的數據顯示﹐美國目前有520萬對非婚同居伴侶﹐共生育了220萬名子女。
與已婚夫婦相比﹐非婚同居伴侶的社會階層較低﹐他們收入少、教育水平低、住房擁有率也低。就婚姻問題而言﹐富人和低收入群體之間儼然已形成了一道越來越寬的鴻溝﹕前者能夠負擔得起婚姻﹐後者中越來越多的人則過著沒有一紙婚書的婚姻生活。
不過如今﹐不僅是年輕人過著被上一代稱做傷風敗俗的非婚同居生活﹐就連他們的父母也開始習慣並選擇這樣的生活方式。50歲以上的人口是增長最快的非婚同居人群。美國現有2,500萬50歲以上的喪偶、離婚人士﹐他們不願因為再婚而讓遺產(或喪葬)情況複雜化﹐但他們也像年輕人一樣溫柔地愛著自己的戀人﹐並且希望戀人能陪伴自己走完人生的旅程。
不過社會提倡的是婚姻和一夫一妻制﹐那麼為什麼採取行動來改變現狀呢﹖現在有兩個選擇﹕讓婚姻在經濟和社會層面上變得更有吸引力﹔或者遵從大眾意見﹐擴充事實婚姻伴侶的權利和義務。現在的情況是我們對一切放任自流﹐其結果便是讓婚姻作為一種制度繼續破滅。”配偶”這個詞正在越來越多地被”伴侶”代替。
如果要鼓勵人們結婚﹐這裡有一些現成的辦法﹕進行減稅而不是稅務罰款﹔對過錯離婚不去窮追猛打﹔敦促宗教人士不要再花那麼多的時間來抨擊某些婚姻(如同性婚姻、異族通婚等)﹐而應該把首要精力放在鼓勵人們結婚上﹔或許在”母親節”和”父親節”之外再設立一個”配偶節”。
再在結婚週年禮物上動動心思怎樣﹖先不考慮1週年”紙婚”和5週年”木婚”﹐讓我們看得遠一些。我們可以把結婚10週年升級為”銀婚”﹐婚姻的路上走這麼久不容易﹐值得人們多花些錢來慶祝﹔25週年應該被稱做”金婚”﹔至於50週年嘛﹐天哪﹐那可以被稱為”希望鑽石婚”了﹗
我們面臨的另一種選擇是去豐富非婚同居人群的權利和義務。這種新的生活方式影響著從子女監護、到遺產贈與、再到近親繼承等各種社會法律﹐以及每一項與家庭福利相關的規章制度。是不是可以讓某位鄉村俱樂部會員的”未婚重要友人”無須等候直接入會﹖讓某位逝者的人生伴侶能夠繼續保留她愛人租住的公寓﹖讓同游隊伍不因其中某些成年人沒有血緣或婚姻關係而享受不了迪斯尼家庭套票﹖
同樣﹐商人們也應該認識到社會上存在著非婚同居者這樣一個群體﹐併提供符合他們特殊情況的產品﹕有”他”或”她”名字首字母的毛巾﹐不過要分別設計﹔能夠寫下兩人全名的地址簽﹔還有讓非婚同居夫婦選擇分頭或一起安排身後事的遺囑文件包。如果所有結婚週年紀念卡上都少了”結婚”二字﹐那麼讓我們開始為同居生活慶賀吧﹗
在某種意義上﹐家庭中的夫妻關係與工作中雇員與老板的關係越來越像。50年前﹐人們預計一生中不會換工作或者只會換上一次工作﹐而如今一些人估計他們要換上五六次工作。如果婚姻意味著”直到死亡將彼此分離”﹐那麼同居就有那麼點”直到生活將彼此分離”的意思。
家庭生活就如工作一樣﹐人們在合同上簽名﹐但也不想讓自己背上太過沉重的負擔﹐以致於難以展開一段新的旅程。所以社會規劃者們最好跟上時代潮流﹐他們已經落後於這一可能是最基本的趨勢──如何接納在非正式婚姻和婚姻制度之間生存的中間人群。金融危機給底層人群帶來了最沉重的打擊﹐這可能導致更多非婚同居現象的出現﹐並最終把這個少數群體變成多數群體。
資料來源:華爾街日報
Categories: Investing / Economy, Love & Relationships, 投資 / 經濟 | Tags: Economy, Financial Crisis, Love, Relationships, 華爾街, 金融風暴 | No Comments
January 30th, 2009
求職市場,進入冷颼颼的寒冬,這對即將步出校門的學生來說,可是嚴峻的考驗,要如何在眾多的求職者中,脫穎而出給企業人事主管留下深刻印象,履歷表上的大頭照,可說是最重要的關鍵。
在日本札幌市經營照相館的橋場一宏,在不景氣中依舊生意興隆,而且上門拍照的幾乎都是為求職苦惱的大學生,橋場之所有擁有超高人氣,最主要是他會針對每位學生希望的求職類別,給予拍照時的建議。
在橋場的引導下,學生的表情越來越自然,嘴角上揚的大頭照,用來應徵國內的航空公司,而另一張露齒微笑的照片,則是應徵外國航空公司之用,想要進入出版業的三上杏那,在拍了30張照片之後,最後決定以一張展現知性笑容的大頭照,投入激烈的求職戰場。
每張大頭照展現了求職者的個性,以及想要獲得率取的決心。
求职市场,进入冷飕飕的寒冬,这对即将步出校门的学生来说,可是严峻的考验,要如何在众多的求职者中,脱颖而出给企业人事主管留下深刻印象,履历表上的大头照,可说是最重要的关键。
在日本札幌市经营照相馆的桥场一宏,在不景气中依旧生意兴隆,而且上门拍照的几乎都是为求职苦恼的大学生,桥场之所有拥有超高人气,最主要是他会针对每位学生希望的求职类别,给予拍照时的建议。
在桥场的引导下,学生的表情越来越自然,嘴角上扬的大头照,用来应征国内的航空公司,而另一张露齿微笑的照片,则是应征外国航空公司之用,想要进入出版业的三上杏那,在拍了30张照片之后,最后决定以一张展现知性笑容的大头照,投入激烈的求职战场。
每张大头照展现了求职者的个性,以及想要获得率取的决心。
Categories: 投資 / 經濟, 趣味新聞 | Tags: 大頭照, 履歷, 日本, 札幌, 橋場一宏, 照相館, 金融風暴 | No Comments
December 18th, 2008
A list of Web sites have reported a pickup in activity since the global financial crisis hit in September as people seek a companion during tough times and save money on face-to-face dates by searching for potential partners on the Internet.
“On days when the U.S. Dow Jones industrial (average) went down by a lot, by more than 100 points, more people were likely to log in and spend more time on the site,” Gian Gonzaga, senior research scientist at Web site eHarmony told Reuters.
“It makes a lot of sense. People seek out companionship in times of stress. Studies repeatedly show that being in a relationship can help a person’s psychological and physical health.”
The Dow Jones industrial average is down 35 percent this year, hitting a year low on November 21, and presenting a new situation for the relatively new online dating industry which has only gone through one economic crisis before, after the 9/11 attacks on the United States.
Match.com, an online dating service, said it had experienced its largest membership growth over the last seven years in November as the daily drumbeat of bad economics sent people looking for love.
“During these trying times, people are looking for hope in their inbox,” said Thomas Enraght-Moony, CEO of Match.com which has online dating sites in 40 countries.
Perfectmatch.com reported a 47 percent jump in the number of members in the three months to November compared to the previous quarter, supporting theories that online dating could be a countercyclical business that does well in an economic downturn.
A poll by Opinion Research Corp., conducted on behalf of eHarmony, found that 57 percent of Americans said the credit crunch made them worry about their love lives with married men the most stressed group with 63 percent of them concerned.
But when researchers divided the 1,092 respondents into age groups, those aged between 25 and 34 were most stressed about the impact their personal economic situation would have on their love lives, with 75 percent of them concerned.
However, researchers found that younger, single people who were stressed about the economy and its impact were more likely to seek out a relationship.
Older people, who were more likely to be married, were concerned that financial stress would harm their relationship, particularly if they feared losing their job or their house.
“When people are stressed they want to find a relationship but if they are in relationship, that extra stress will make that relationship that bit harder,” said Gonzaga, adding that similar surveys in Australia and Britain came up with the same results.
“Stress gets under the skin of relationships. Partners spend less time together because they have to work more. There are often more fights over bills and household budgets.”
Another survey by Avalanche LLC, which operates online dating Web sites date.com, matchmaker.com, and amor.com, found 48 percent of people were spending more time online or on the phone with a potential date before spending on a face-to-face meeting.
Source: Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B74ZY20081208)
許多網站稱,自從9月全球金融危機爆發以來,網站流量增加,因大家在網上尋找另一半。一方面想在困境中尋找伴侶,同時又可以省掉面對面約會的支出。
eHarmony網站高級研究員吉安‧貢扎加(Gian Gonzaga)說:「在道瓊工業指數單日跌幅超過100點時,往往有更多人在網上登錄,在網上流連的時間也更長。這也難怪,人在壓力大時就想尋找伴侶。多項研究顯示,與人交往有助於身心健康。」
道瓊工業指數今年已累計下跌35%,在11月21日創下一年低點,看來為新興的網上交友提供了新的機會。交友網站Match.com說,11月其會員增加幅度為過去7年中最大。因在經濟面噩耗頻傳之際,大家試圖從愛情中得到慰藉。
Perfectmatch.com也宣布,在截至11月的3個月中,會員較前季增加47%,印證網上交友服務行業可能與經濟景氣週期背道而馳的說法。
資料來源:路透社
许多网站称,自从9月全球金融危机爆发以来,网站流量增加,因大家在网上寻找另一半。一方面想在困境中寻找伴侣,同时又可以省掉面对面约会的支出。
eHarmony网站高级研究员吉安‧贡扎加(Gian Gonzaga)说:「在道琼工业指数单日跌幅超过100点时,往往有更多人在网上登录,在网上流连的时间也更长。这也难怪,人在压力大时就想寻找伴侣。多项研究显示,与人交往有助于身心健康。」
道琼工业指数今年已累计下跌35%,在11月21日创下一年低点,看来为新兴的网上交友提供了新的机会。交友网站Match.com说,11月其会员增加幅度为过去7年中最大。因在经济面噩耗频传之际,大家试图从爱情中得到慰藉。
Perfectmatch.com也宣布,在截至11月的3个月中,会员较前季增加47%,印证网上交友服务行业可能与经济景气周期背道而驰的说法。
资料来源:路透社
Categories: Investing / Economy, Love & Relationships, 投資 / 經濟, 趣味新聞 | Tags: Dating, Economy, Financial Crisis, Relationships, 約會, 金融風暴 | No Comments