LIFE’S UPS AND DOWNS 生活札記

EnglishThe party is over for the cash-flashing traders who once propped up Tokyo’s Heartland bar - and for the Japanese women hoping to bag themselves a banker

Haruna Hiraki pokes at the melting ice cubes with a perfect fingernail and frowns. She has never had to make a ginger ale last this long. It is 9.30pm, she is in an outfit that cost two months’ salary and nobody has yet bought her a proper drink.

“Another 10 minutes, then we’ll go?” pleads her friend Etsuko Shirasu, 25, from across the bar table.

“Waste of time. I told you this place was finished. Lehman, Goldman: they’ve all been sacked or gone back to America,” says Haruna, 25.

It is Thursday night and Roppongi romance - or at least, the calculated brand of romance that used to be the currency in this Tokyo bar - is at death’s door. Heartland, with its low lights and brushed-steel tables, has made its name as a favourite with the financial great and good and the occasional Japanese celebrity. In the warm months drinkers spill out on to the street. However, the bar that once boomed with British brokers, Australian traders, American hedge-fund managers and those Japanese women who would love them has fallen eerily silent. More damningly, says Heartland veteran and former Roppongi barmaid Eriko Masabuchi, it has gone “image down”.

The well-rehearsed choreography of girls coming in from the suburbs in their finery, tasting the good life, then snagging an investment banker to prolong the party, is yesterday’s dance. An entire segment of downtown Tokyo, which rose to fame and fortune with the 2003-07 bull market, has now been spectacularly snuffed out by the crash.

From the moment it opened in 2003 until just a few weeks ago, Heartland used to be the throbbing soul of the huge, glittering Roppongi Hills development. Everything that the investment banks, luxury apartments and high-end boutiques represented was nightly squeezed into that small space in one corner of the complex boisterous with money and ambition.

In its prime, the 54 storeys of the Roppongi Hills office tower were a focal point for much that was positive about Japan: it was the spiritual home of Japan’s kachigumi - society’s “winners”. By 9.50pm, back at Heartland, two foreign men in suits have finally made a move. Haruna and Etsuko clutch new vodka tonics, but are sipping quickly: the suits worn by the men who bought the drinks don’t fit right and the ties are domestic, they could even be polyester. The would-be wooers stumble on the question of what it is they actually do “in banking” and are quickly sized up as frauds, or possibly IT consultants.

The girls make excuses and head to the station for the hour-long ride back to Kawasaki: they understand economics enough to know that they will probably never find the banker ready to induct them to the “Hills Tribe” of well-dressed women living and shopping around Roppongi Hills.

“I think Heartland and the stock markets are the same thing,” says Masabuchi, drawing a downward spiral in the air, “so it is not surprising that the bar has had a kind of ‘shock’ of its own. Bankers have always gone to certain bars in Japan, but the ones around Roppongi Hills are different - they became part of Japanese culture as much as expat culture.”

It is the speed of Heartland’s decline as a matchmaker between raw aspiration and raw wealth that shocks regulars at the famous bar.

In a country that measures social patterns by the decade and century, it is unprecedented to see one shatter so quickly. “There are two things happening in this bar now, and neither of them is good,” says Noel, 38, a fund manager with offices near by and an apartment even closer. “First, from our point of view, the girls have got the message that Wall Street capitalism is in trouble and the sharper ones are just not bothering to turn up. But worse is that they don’t trust us any more. We’ve still got the nice suits and the job in finance - just about - but these chicks are smart. They know we don’t carry the financial guarantees we used to.”

The Roppongi Hills developer, billionaire property tycoon Minoru Mori, made sure that the place was stocked with tenants who would fit his image of a social and economic dynamo for new Japan. For a while the strategy worked. After gloomy years of enforced satisfaction with middle-class mediocrity, a new class of Tokyoite had emerged: young Japanese found it desirable to stand out as men and women motivated by money. Hills Tribe members were interviewed by the Japanese media as the “girl in the street”; their opinion was seen to matter.

While Japan is at pains to think of itself as one huge middle class, many of the girls who shark at Roppongi Hills have jobs in nail salons that may be reasonably paid, but they still live at home. Foreign men - either for a short fling or something longer - are seen as a treat because of the money, but also because there is a view (however misguided) that Western men treat women better.

Mariko Bando, president of Showa Women’s University, is one of Japan’s authorities on gender issues. “Roppongi Hills came to represent the widening gap between rich and poor in Japan,” she says. “The men who worked there - particularly the foreign bankers - presented so much more than ordinary Japanese salary men could offer. Japan has had a phenomenon like this before, but the last time was the 1980s bubble, when foreigners arrived in large numbers.” It is not simply a matter of “gold digging”, she says, but about finding a more attractive style of relationship.

“Of course, the interest of Japanese women in those financial businesses and the men who work there will decline, but I think that foreign men will still appeal - even the poor ones. What the Hills experience did was to show the disadvantage that Japanese men have compared with foreign men in the eyes of Japanese women. Japanese men are spoilt too much by their mothers and are just not kind enough to their women.”

Peter, 36, a former sales trader at a large US investment bank, believes that the women of Heartland have developed a sixth sense for layoffs. “The five-year reign of the Roppongi Hills scene bred a pretty canny strain of Japanese woman. I fell in love with at least one of them. It is scary to see how quickly they’ve disappeared from the bars. And they started disappearing early: these girls are a market indicator to which we should all pay attention.”

In the area’s winding streets, high-end pawn shops tell their own stories of sudden downturn and furtive liquidation. Investment bankers - especially the Japanese working for US firms - have taken to nipping out at lunchtime to ditch the trinkets bought in the boom. One pawn shop, L’Ecrin, has a speciality in buying Jane Birkin edition Hermès bags from the nouveau destitute of the Hills Tribe.

Taeko Hiroguchi, 33, regards herself as one of its princesses, but even she can see that the good times have stopped. “I’ve found three boyfriends in Heartland: two Lehman and one from Morgan Stanley,” she says. “I even lived with one of them for a while and helped him spend his 2005 bonus. These Bulgari earrings were a present from him. Even if we were still going out, there would be no bonus this year though, right?”

When she first moved into the apartment of her Lehman sales trader boyfriend, her friends, still living in single-room studios on the outskirts of Tokyo, were green with envy. “I’d invent excuses for them to come and visit just so I could show them the apartment and take them to coffee shops they would never normally go to,” she says. “Suddenly, this autumn, it all just stopped. In my mind I’m still a member of the Hills Tribe, I just don’t have the money to behave like one.” Roppongi Hills was about more than just foreign money. Japanese wealth was created and destroyed there too. In 2006 two Japanese entrepreneurs were convicted of insider dealing and rumours of a “curse” began to circulate.

“Maybe Lehman was the final victim,” says Etsuko, before hopping on the southbound train to the suburbs. “I’ll just go out in Kawasaki from now on. No rich princes to buy me champagne, but at least I can afford the first drink there on my own.”

Source: The Times

繁體中文面對全球金融海嘯及經濟放緩，高盛和花旗兩家美資大行本周開始着手裁員「瘦身」，在全球裁減高達一萬兩千名員工。市場流言四起，指在本港有「輪后」之譽，高盛執行董事及亞洲區證券化衍生產品主管李頌慈，亦可能成為裁員潮下的犧牲品。李頌慈昨日回應本報查詢時稱，由於正在休假，無法評論是否被捲入裁員。此外，美林證券在港衍生工具部門亦傳將裁掉一半人手。

對於高盛大裁員，業界議論紛紛，其中身為高盛「紅人」的李頌慈，格外得到業內中人關心，據聞很多「賓架」都致電李頌慈詢問情況。本報就傳聞向輪后查證，她表示，昨日正在休假，對於是否被捲入裁員，她稱太敏感，無法評論，但強調目前仍在高盛的衍生工具部門工作。

李頌慈甜美樣貌及朗朗口材贏得窩輪投資者歡心，在加入高盛之前，任職歐資行法興，負責窩輪推銷工作，一炮而紅，並贏得輪后的美譽，其後於二○○五年加盟高盛，協助該行窩輪業務蒸蒸日上。在○六及○七年窩輪市場全盛時期，她的花紅數字更成為坊間八卦雜誌的熱炒新聞。

高盛裁員， 李頌慈疑被牽連亦不無因由，因為今年以來窩輪市場表現每況愈下，根據業界資料顯示，在金融海嘯衝擊下，窩輪日均成交由第二季超過一百五十億元，跌至上季僅九十億元，蒸發超過四成，無形中令各銀行的衍生工具部門窩輪生意紛紛告急，難再為投資銀行生金蛋，衍生工具部門成為裁員對象，不教人感到意外。話雖如此，李頌慈夫家是已故大馬富商邱德拔家族，即渣打銀行前大股東，李頌慈屬豪門少奶。

分析師預估高盛首現虧損

至於高盛全球裁員，在周三已向該公司約三千二百名員工發出「大信封」，數目佔高盛整體員工約一成；花旗則在本周較早時宣布通知員工，將在未來十二個月裁減九千一百個職位，佔員工總數約百分之二點六。

自去年次按市場引爆金融危機以來，全球金融業陸續裁員，據統計，過去一年裏金融業已至少裁員達十五萬人，其中花旗已裁減一萬兩千九百個職位，高盛亦已至少裁減一千五百個職位。高盛今年八月底曾有僱員近三萬二千六百人，而花旗今年九月底僱員數量為三十五萬二千人。

摩根士丹利分析師預估，高盛下季恐面臨虧損，將會是自九九年公司上市以來出現的首次虧損。分析師下調高盛第四季業績預測，由此前的純利每股三點二一美元 調為虧損一點○九美元，此外，亦下調高盛明年業績預估，純利每股調低至九點四美元，跌四點七九美元，而花旗集團 亦已錄得連續四個季度的虧損。

資料來源：星島日報

繁體中文金融市場深陷泥淖，全球經濟成長又面臨放緩，各大公司裁員的消息不斷傳出。金融界幾乎無一倖免，包括美國首屈一指的高盛以及在這一波受損算小的瑞士信貸。如我之前一篇No more Krispy Kreme in Hong Kong…寫到，這次的金融海嘯已開始滲入整個經濟體。昨天摩托羅拉宣布全球大量裁員，今天美國運通也決定全球裁減10%的員工 (約7,000人)。

看到這麼多的壞消息，大家最關注的是 “景氣的谷底會在什麼時候出現？” 因為股市是經濟的領先指標，通常會在前6個月就反應。所以如果股市如果能夠落底，那麼景氣的寒冬也就接近尾聲了。

想起當時的經濟大蕭條，股市花了超過25年的時間，才終於收復了由1929年至1933年跌掉的幅度。或許現在的體制優於過去，但有很多目前的問題卻是前所未見的。例如通貨膨脹與通貨緊縮同時存在的現象，在過去的歷史中少有，再加上適合通膨與通縮的投資策略完全相反，目前也沒多少專家能提出適當的對策。

當許多大型績優股都紛紛破底之際，投資人想從基本面來找底部，幾乎不可能。因為許多股票不但跌破淨值，連票面價值都不到。現在是恐懼情緒主導，基本面完全不管用。舉例來說，本益比的預估是以企業盈餘預測來換算，但在經濟情況不佳、股市波動大的情況下，單純估算一年本益比是沒有意義的，因為未來的企業盈餘一定會被大幅調低。

所以目前任何上漲都只能算是死貓反彈，而且甚至是個陷阱。利空籠罩連連暴跌後，突然出現強勁反彈，短暫拉高吸引買盤進場，又急殺繼續重挫，衝進去搶到反彈的投資人，慘遭套牢，欲哭無淚。所以目前任何低點能不能就此確底，恐怕還需要一段時間的驗證。

在真正底部訊號還未出現前，應該怎麼做呢？可參考以下的建議：

1. 目前所有投資只能搶反彈。如果自認手腳不快，寧可等到底部確認後再追股票，而不是一般所謂的 “現在買，賠錢的機率不高。” 因為首先，現在是經濟不景氣與對市場信心不足的非理性時點，投資標的幾乎很難判斷出真正的底部。其次，特別是在不景氣之下，投資人最重要的事是儘量避免資產的減損。而在市場價格一再探底之際，投資人的資產肯定會受到不同程度的損失
2. 越是當投資市場不景氣之際，就越是要回歸本業，固守好穩定賺錢的根本。不管是哪種職業，只要能固定收到現金的工作，都應該好好把握。特別是在這場比氣長的不景氣馬拉松中
3. 非常時代，要思考非常的應變策略。世界各國為了挽救金融業，紛紛投入大量的資金挹注，這顯示出未來全球將無可避免地陷入各國央行印鈔票還債的超級通貨膨脹。而伴隨著這一波金融大海嘯的，卻是油價與原物料價格的持續走跌。如剛剛提到，這是歷史上罕見的通貨膨脹與通貨緊縮同時並存的現象

最後希望大家不要氣餒，最低潮時，往往就是最高潮的開始。你無法控制外界的環境，但是你可以控制你自己對它的反應。與其怨天尤人，到不如利用這個機會充實和磨練自己！ 大家共勉之！